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Analysis Turkey
How the ‘Clash of Civilizations’ Explains Turkey-US Relations
September 30, 2016
Turkey’s geopolitics is increasingly at the center of attention after the failed coup of July 2016. The era of Kamalism, with the army as “guardian of secularism” has ended. The AKP and its revered chief Erdogan are free as never before to go ahead in their ideological project of pushing Turkey’s society toward its Islamic roots. In this short article we will try to explain in a comprehensive and organic way the geopolitical turmoil in Turkey using the analysis of the “clash of civilizations” from Samuel Huntington.
It appears that the framework suggested by Huntington can explain what is happening in Turkey nowadays, from the ascension of AK party, to the spread of anti-western sentiments among Turkish people, as well as the ambiguous role of Turkey in the Syrian civil war. Furthermore, exploring the remaking of the world order predicted by the eminent Harvard professor can enable us to make plausible scenarios for the future.
The main message coming from the clash of civilizations is that, in the post-Cold War era, the world will shift from bipolar (US vs USSR) to multipolar international relationships and nations will organize their relations according to their cultural ties. In this setting, the fall of the Soviet Empire announces the end of the “ideological wars “and a shift to a normal state of affairs characterized by cultural conflicts. Huntington describes eight major civilizations and he forecasts inter civilizational conflicts along their civilizational lines, while other kind of struggles can emerge inside a civilization itself in order to gain the supremacy over it.
In chapter three of his book a special paragraph concerns Turkey, which, from its historical role in the region as well as its unique geographic situation is a natural bridge between two continents and two civilizations. Translated into the Huntington vocabulary, we could say the Turkey is greatest example of a civilization fault line. Turkey is a nation-state historically engaged in a civilization conflict with two external civilizations (the Christian West and the Orthodox-Russia East) as well as an important participant in the internal struggle for supremacy inside the Islamic civilization, both in the context of Sunni vs Shiite, and within the Sunni bloc.
During the Cold War, Turkey joined the West’s alliance, enjoying financial aid and the military technologies of NATO. The laicism of the nation in the ideological line of Kemalism, and the hope of joining the European Union, created good relations between the West and Turkey. Furthermore, the US was pushing for the integration of Turkey into the European Union to try and make the border of the EU identical to that of NATO. In this context, Turkey served as a shield between the West and Russia, both in the southeast of the Mediterranean and in the Black Sea.
With the end of the Cold War, ambitions from the past started to arise and all the ingredients for a perfect storm have been converging to fuel Islamic populism: A small, rich, secular and well-educated elite versus a mass of religious-oriented people. A regime of laicism imposed by the state against a sharp and well-spread religious sentiment, supported by the lower classes of society. The fall in disgrace of a great empire and a sort of vexation to be part of an alliance which is perceived as a Christian club supporting Israel against the Muslims in Palestine and that, after all, seems to reject the idea of Turkey entering in the European Union. All this dissatisfaction has been canalized in a sort of “geopolitics of emotions” as a vector for gaining consensus by galvanizing the masses and supporting the resurgence pride for the ancient glory of Turkish Ottoman Empire in what has been defined as “New Ottomanism.”
The predictions of the clash of civilizations finds are realized in the case of Turkey, which has gradually started to shift its geopolitics, using religious factors as a principal component of its strategy. The rhetoric used against Israel, the call for Muslim union, the construction of hundreds of mosques, the scene in which Erdogan himself appears praying in the mosque, the use of the Quran, even in public meetings of the AKP… the modus operandi of Erdogan is quite simple: “Islamic populism.” The message is still the same, from the Balkans, supporting the myth of great Albania, to Somalia, where Turkish airlines have put into place a stable airline connection, from Kosovo to Uzbekistan – all in order to create a new Turkish sphere of influence.
In this context and in order to push forward the rhetoric of the “Strong Turkey” as a Muslim leader and defender, a natural particular target has been Israel, the US’ greatest ally in the region. The “Mavi Marmara” case is of course the apex of this “Islamist propaganda,” and the attack on the Israel embassy in Ankara on the 21 September 2016 should come as no surprise. In this case, the assailant has been defined as “crazy’’ by the authorities in Ankara, but the “crazy” thing seems to be the message he cried out before the attack: “We will make justice in the Middle East,” which sounds like he is repeating Erdogan’s message.
Step by step, Turkish foreign policy has gradually shifted from “zero problems with neighbors” to “Neo-Ottomanism,” and more divergence between Turkey’s interests and the West’s interest have been developing in recent years. We have already mentioned “the strain” with Israel, pushing the latter to create a geopolitical bloc with Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Greece in order to contain Turkish ambition in the region.
But of course we should also notice the divergence in positions between Turkey and the West during the Arab Spring. Concerning Egypt, we can see clearly the two opposing positions with the West supporting Al-Sisi and Erdogan pushing for Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Finally, the divergence in the Syrian civil war, with the US supporting Kurdish rebels that Turkey considers to be more dangerous then Islamic State, and all of the many doubts and dark areas that remain in Turkey-ISIS relations.
After such considerations, it appears totally logical, the accusation of Erdogan against the US after the July coup. It would appear that Erdogan and Turkey are acting against the interests of the West, with Turkey using the migrant crisis as tool to pressure the European Union. Now President Erdogan can also try to use the failed coup as final proof of US conspiracy against himself, the Turkish people, and Islam.
The main questions here are: Could this turmoil have be prevented? And what happens next?
Following the Huntington thesis of clash of civilizations, it’s clear the West’s effort to peg Turkey in the Western civilization has failed. Turkey is orienting its geopolitics to the East, trying to establish a Turkish area of influence from Kosovo to Egypt through Somalia and Central Asia; it presents itself as a guide for all Turkish nations and a defender of Muslim civilization. The shift away from the Western bloc also coincides with a shift from Western democracy: The Gaza park protests, the accusations of antisemitism, the silencing of the press, the changes to the constitution, the presidential palace construction, the nomination of Erdogan’s son-in-law as minister of oil, and the intimidation of the Constitutional Court – these are all signals of the rise of a “one-man state.”
If, during the Balkans wars, Turkey was a reliable partner, this was due to the fact that NATO was supporting Muslim minorities against a Russian ally in the region, as Huntington himself pointed out in his essay. In the Syrian civil war, the divergence between the West and Turkey has finally become visible. If at the beginning, the US and Erdogan had the same main objective to eliminate Russia influence in the region as well as weaken Iran’s position in Middle East, the situation has gradually changed, and the threat of Islamic State has become more important for Western civilization, which has helped to make the Kurdish forces the most important US ally in the war. Turkey refuses to accept his secondary role inside the West and behind its core state, the US. Erdogan has not hesitated to move closer to Russia and make a “secret deal” with Putin; after Syrian and Russian authorities expressed concern about Syrian ethnic divisions, Turkey launched the offensive “Euphrates shield” with the main objective to stop the Kurdish militias.
The final lesson we can learn from these events is about the limits of globalization and the failure of the soft power policy of some progressive American analysts concerning the West’s policy toward Turkey. In particular, under the Obama presidency, the goal was to demonstrate that it is possible to avoid a clash of civilizations; Turkey-US relations should have proved de facto that it is possible to build an inter-civilization global community under the UN umbrella, with the US as leader of the ‘’free world.” This ambition was clearly stated by Obama himself during his first state visit to Turkey as US president in April 2009. Obama said: “I’m trying to make a statement about the importance of Turkey, not just to the United States but to the world. I think that where there’s the most promise of building stronger Turkey-US relations is in the recognition that Turkey and the United States can build a model partnership in which a predominantly Christian nation, a predominantly Muslim nation…” he then continued, “that we can create a modern international community that is respectful, that is secure, that is prosperous, that there are not tensions – inevitable tensions between cultures – which I think is extraordinarily important.”
Seven years later, we should recognize that in the case of Turkey this model of inter-civilizational partnership has failed. Huntington depicted Turkey as a torn country, between the West and Muslim civilizations, but meanwhile, under the Erdogan regime, this bipolarity has been solved and the Islamic roots have prevailed. A century ago, the Turkish empire had fallen in a brutal way; now, the dust is falling and like the phoenix, Ottoman imperialism seems to be on the rise again, supported by this AKP leader who in 1997 read some verses of Ziya Gökalp “The mosques are our barracks, and the minaret is our bayonet.” Unfortunately, the clash of the civilizations has been proven to be the right framework for understanding the current geopolitical dynamic in Turkey.
If the West needs to continue to fight for its values and ideals, it should do so without avoiding realpolitik. The West needs to realize the limit of its globalization and recognize that its democratic values and humanism comes from its Christian heritage – it cannot be “exported.” Many AKP leaders point out that the AKP is the vanguard of a “historic transformation,” “closing a century-old parenthesis” in Turkey by ending Kemalism and the “Sykes-Picot order in the Middle East” by spearheading its own “model” in the Arab world. In such a context, Western countries need to carefully monitor new developments and ensure all measures are in place to avoid further tensions in the region, and assure that both the West and Turkey work for peace as the primary objective of their relations. We should understand that ‘’political correctness’’ and blind pacifism cannot avoid the clash of civilizations if the other party is not receptive to this kind of dialogue. Peaceful relations can be obtained by ensuring both parties will share the same willingness to enjoy peace in mutual respect and by rejecting religious populism as a political tool to grab power.
Turkey: The Newest Combatant in the Syrian Civil War
August 31, 2016
Summary
It would appear the experiment is over. After dabbling in a policy of relying on a motley mix of friends and enemies to topple the Assad regime, Ankara seems to have now calculated that Damascus is at no risk of falling and that the status quo is unacceptable to Turkish interests. The result has been Turkish tanks rolling across the Syrian border to make good on an ultimatum for Kurdish forces to retreat east of the Euphrates.
Now Washington’s worst fears are being realized as Turkish tanks are fired on by Syrian Democratic Forces (made up predominantly of Kurdish YPG units) south of the border town of Jarablus, which itself fell quickly to a combination of Free Syrian Army and Turkish units.
Turkey’s entrance into the conflict is a potential game-changer in terms of the Syrian civil war, Turkey’s internal security, and Turkey’s relationship with the United States.
Islamic State has lost all territory along the Syria-Turkey border, Turkish news agency says
For Islamic State, the 500-mile border between Syria and Turkey has been the main gateway for arms and foreign fighters entering its self-proclaimed caliphate.
Jihadis would fly to Istanbul, Turkey, then travel to remote hamlets in southern Turkey to be smuggled into Syria.
But that passageway has now been cut off by Syrian rebels and Turkish-backed Islamic factions that snatched a 54-mile strip of territory Sunday, Turkish officials and rebels said.
“The Turkish border with Syria was cleared Sunday of Daesh,” the Turkish state news agency Anadolu reported, using Islamic State’s Arabic acronym. The gains came 12 days after Turkey announced an offensive known as Operation Euphrates Shield.
The newly seized territory stretches between the cities of Jarabulus and Azaz in northwestern Syria and includes the Syrian border town of Rai, which for the last two years has flipped back and forth between Islamic State and rebel control.
The Turkish news agency reported that factions collectively known as the Free Syrian Army — a loose-knit group whose members say they espouse a secular non-Islamist vision for the country and have received Western support — now control a belt of land extending two to three miles inside the country.
One group, the Be Upright As You Were Commanded Brigades, posted a YouTube video showing its members storming positions near Rai.
But the effort also included the hard-line Islamist faction, Faylaq Al-Sham, which said on its official Twitter account Sunday that its fighters — shown earlier in photographs preparing for battle with Islamic State — were responsible for linking border territory west of Jarabulus with areas east of Rai.
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Such collaboration speaks to the complexity of the conflict in Syria. Rebel groups have common enemies in Islamic State and the government of President Bashar Assad — which are also fighting each other — but different outside backers and long-term goals.
Turkey supports only some of the rebel factions. It is a sworn enemy of the Kurdish militia known as the People’s Protection Units, which it views as an ally of the Kurdish insurgents it is fighting at home.
But among the various factions fighting in Syria, the Kurdish militia is the most important U.S. ally against Islamic State.
The territorial gains follow other steps the Turkish government has taken to seal the border, including constructing a series of “modular walls.” Turkish crews continued building the first of these concrete barriers Saturday near Suruc, the state news agency reported.
Turkey says the walls are meant to stop all terrorists, including Kurdish rebels.
Turkey launches U.S.-backed attack to ‘cleanse’ Syrian border of ISIS
Turkey-backed Syrian rebels seized a number of villages and towns from Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria on Sunday amid Turkish airstrikes and shelling that killed at least 35 people, mostly civilians, according to rebels and a monitoring group.
Turkey sent tanks across the border to help Syrian rebels drive the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria out of the frontier town of Jarablus last week in a dramatic escalation of its involvement in the Syrian civil war.
The operation, labeled Euphrates Shield, is also aimed at pushing back U.S.-allied Kurdish forces. The fighting pits a NATO ally against a U.S.-backed proxy that is the most effective ground force battling IS in Syria.
Turkey troops attempt to cleanse border of ISIS
Turkey’s official Anadolu news agency said Turkish airstrikes killed 25 Kurdish “terrorists” and destroyed five buildings used by the fighters in response to attacks on advancing Turkish-backed rebels in the Jarablus area.
The Turkish military is “taking every precaution and showing maximum sensitivity to ensure that civilians living in the area are not harmed,” Anadolu reported.
A Turkish soldier was killed by a Kurdish rocket attack late Saturday, the first such fatality in the offensive, now in its fifth day.
Various factions of the Turkey-backed Syrian rebels said Sunday they have seized at least four villages and one town from Kurdish-led forces south of Jarablus. One of the villages to change hands was Amarneh, where clashes had been fiercest. Rebels posted pictures from inside the village.
Ankara is deeply suspicious of the Syrian Kurdish militia that dominates the U.S.-backed Syria Democratic Forces, viewing it as an extension of the Kurdish insurgency raging in southeastern Turkey. Turkish leaders have vowed to drive both IS and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, away from the border.
The SDF crossed the Euphrates River and drove ISIS out of Manbij, a key supply hub just south of Jarablus, earlier this month. Both Turkey and the United States have ordered the YPG to withdraw to the east bank of the river. YPG leaders say they have, but their units play an advisory role to the SDF and it is not clear if any of their forces remain west of the Euphrates.
Turkey is part of the U.S.-led coalition fighting IS, but the airstrikes that began Saturday marked the first time it has targeted Kurdish-led forces in Syria.
Turkey enters Syria to fight ISIS strongholds
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the bombing killed at least 20 civilians and four Kurdish-led fighters in Beir Khoussa, a village about nine miles south of Jarablus, and another 15 in a village to the west.
ANHA, the news agency of the Kurdish semi-autonomous areas, said Beir Khoussa has “reportedly lost all its residents.”
ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey's prime minister's office said the Turkish military and the U.S.-backed coalition forces on Wednesday launched an operation to clear a Syrian border town from Islamic State militants.
The state-run Anadolu Agency said the operation began at 4 a.m. with Turkish artillery launching intense fire on Jarablus followed by Turkish warplanes bombing IS targets in the town.
It's not clear if any Turkish or Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces have crossed the border.
The agency said the operation aims to clear Turkey's border of "terror organizations" and increase border security. It said the aim also is to "prioritize and support" Syria's territorial integrity.
The assault follows Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlet Cavusolgu pledge on Tuesday of "every kind" of support for operations against IS along a 100-kilometer (62-mile) stretch of Syrian frontier, putting the NATO member on track for a confrontation with U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria, who have been the most effective force against IS and who are eyeing the same territory.
Cavusolgu said Turkey would support twin operations stretching from the Syrian town of Afrin in the northwest, which is already controlled by Kurdish forces, to Jarablus, in the central north, which is held by the Islamic State group.
"It is important that the terror organizations are cleansed from the region," Cavusolgu said in a joint news conference with his Hungarian counterpart.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said some 500 Syrian rebels were massed on the Turkish side of the border in preparation for an assault, including local fighters from Jarablus. One rebel at the border told the BBC the number was as high as 1,500 fighters.
Va. knife attack may have been ISIS-inspired beheading attempt
The latest developments have thrust the town into the spotlight of the ongoing Syrian civil war. Jarablus, which lies on the western bank of the Euphrates River where it crosses from Turkey into Syria, is one of the last important IS-held towns standing between Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria.
Located 20 miles (33 kilometers) from the town of Manbij, which was liberated from IS by Kurdish-led forces earlier this month, taking control of Jarablus and the IS-held town of al-Bab to the south would be a significant step toward linking up border areas under Kurdish control east and west of the Euphrates River.
Turkey has increased security measures on its border with Syria, deploying tanks and armored personnel carriers in recent days. On Tuesday, residents of the Turkish town of Karkamis, across the border from Jarablus, were told to evacuate after three mortars believed to be fired by IS militants landed there, Turkey's Dogan news agency said.
Turkey has vowed to fight IS militants at home and to "cleanse" the group from its borders after a weekend suicide bombing at a Kurdish wedding in southern Turkey killed at least 54 people, many of them children. Turkish officials have blamed IS for the attack.
Bomb kills 50, dozens wounded at Kurdish wedding in Turkey
Ankara is also concerned about the growing power of U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces, who it says are linked to Kurdish groups waging an insurgency in southeastern Turkey.
The Kurdish-led group known as the Syria Democratic Forces, or SDF, recaptured Manbij from IS earlier this month, triggering concerns in Ankara that Kurdish forces would seize the entire border strip with Turkey. The U.S. says it has embedded some 300 special forces with the SDF, and British special forces have also been spotted advising the group.
Syrian activists, meanwhile, said that hundreds of Turkish-backed Syrian opposition fighters were gathered in the Turkish border area near Karkamis in preparation for an attack on Jarablus.
Nasser Haj Mansour, an SDF official on the Syrian side of the border, said the fighters gathering in Turkey include "terrorists" as well as Turkish special forces. He declined to comment on whether the SDF would send fighters to the town, but an SDF statement said the Syrian Kurdish force was "prepared to defend the country against any plans for a direct or indirect occupation."
The reports and rhetoric appeared to set up a confrontation between the SDF, the most effective U.S. proxy in Syria, and NATO ally Turkey.
A rebel commander affiliated with the SDF was killed shortly after broadcasting a statement announcing the formation of the so-called Jarablus Military Council and vowing to protect civilians in Jarablus from Turkish "aggression."
Abdel-Sattar al-Jader was shot by unknown gunmen late Monday, an hour after he accused Turkey of mobilizing fighters and "terrorists" for an assault on Jarablus. Al-Jader had pledged to resist Turkish efforts to take control of the city and warned Ankara against further aggression.
The Jarablus Military Council blamed the killing on Turkish security agents. There was no immediate comment from Turkey. Haj Mansour said two suspects were in custody but declined to comment on their identities.
Bombing attacks kill 14 in Turkey, ISIS Libya explosion claims 10
The Kurds' outsized role in the Syrian civil war is a source of concern for the Syrian government as well. Fierce clashes erupted between the two sides over control of the northeastern province of Hasakeh last week, and Syrian warplanes bombed Kurdish positions for the first time, prompting the U.S. to scramble its jets to protect American troops in the area.
The Syrian government and the Kurds agreed on a cease-fire Tuesday, six days after the clashes erupted. The Kurdish Hawar News Agency said government forces agreed to withdraw from Hasakeh as part of the truce.
Syrian state media did not mention any withdrawal, saying only that the two sides had agreed to evacuate the wounded and exchange detainees. Government and Kurdish forces have shared control of Hasakeh since the early years of the Syrian war.
Meanwhile, the Syrian army and its allies intensified their attacks on militant positions around the so-called military college in the northern city of Aleppo.
A video obtained by The Associated Press showed air raids, shelling and firing on the complex, which was taken over by al-Qaida-affiliated fighters earlier this month. Plumes of smoke were seen billowing overhead.
Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said in emailed comments on Tuesday that Russia and the Syrian government will announce "the first 48-hour humanitarian break in hostilities" in Aleppo as soon as they receive an official request from the U.N. envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura.
Dawn of the ‘Post-EU’ Era in Turkey’s Foreign Policy?
August 9, 2016
Summary
Turkey President Erdogan has made Russia his first foreign visit following the dramatic events of a failed coup last month.
The visit comes against the backdrop of a deepening crackdown on supporters of US cleric Fethullah Gulen in Turkey.
It also has some in the West concerned that Erdogan’s choice of Russia is symbolic; they’re worried that it’s meant to launch a new era in Turkish foreign policy – one in which the goal of being accepted as a member of the EU, a ‘Western state,’ has been roundly discarded by the Turkish authorities
US nukes at Turkey base at risk of seizure: report
Dozens of US nuclear weapons stored at a Turkish air base near Syria are at risk of being captured by "terrorists or other hostile forces," a Washington think tank claimed Monday.
Critics have long been alarmed by America's estimated stockpile of about 50 nuclear bombs at Incirlik in southern Turkey, just 70 miles (110 kilometers) from the border with war-torn Syria.
The issue took on fresh urgency last month following the attempted coup in Turkey, in which the base's Turkish commander was arrested on suspicion of complicity in the plot.
"Whether the US could have maintained control of the weapons in the event of a protracted civil conflict in Turkey is an unanswerable question," said Monday's report from the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan think tank working to promote peace.
Incirlik is a vital base for the US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, with the strategically located facility affording drones and warplanes fast access to IS targets.
But the Pentagon in March ordered families of US troops and civilian personnel stationed in southern Turkey to quit the region due to security fears.
"From a security point of view, it's a roll of the dice to continue to have approximately 50 of America's nuclear weapons stationed at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey," report co-author Laicie Heeley said.
"There are significant safeguards in place. ... But safeguards are just that, they don't eliminate risk. In the event of a coup, we can't say for certain that we would have been able to maintain control," she told AFP.
- 'Avoided disaster so far' -
While the Pentagon does not discuss where it stores nuclear assets, the bombs are believed to be kept at Incirlik as a deterrent to Russia and to demonstrate America's commitment to NATO, the 28-member military alliance that includes Turkey.
The Incirlik nuke issue has been the subject of renewed debate in the United States since the coup attempt.
"While we've avoided disaster so far, we have ample evidence that the security of US nuclear weapons stored in Turkey can change literally overnight," Steve Andreasen, director for defense policy and arms control on the White House National Security Council staff from 1993 to 2001, wrote in an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times last week.
Kori Schake, a fellow at the California-based Hoover Institution, noted in a written debate in the New York Times that "American nuclear forces cannot be used without codes, making the weapons impossible to set off without authorization."
"The fact that nuclear weapons are stationed in Turkey does not make them vulnerable to capture and use, even if the country were to turn hostile to the United States," she argued.
The Pentagon declined to comment on questions arising from the Stimson study.
"We do not discuss the location of strategic assets. The (Department of Defense) has taken appropriate steps to maintain the safety and security of our personnel, their families, and our facilities, and we will continue to do so," it said in a statement.
The Incirlik concerns were highlighted as part of a broader paper into the Pentagon's nuclear modernization program, through which the United States would spend hundreds of billions of dollars to update its atomic arsenal.
The authors argue that a particular type of bomb -- the B61 gravity bomb -- should be immediately removed from Europe, where 180 of the weapons are kept in Belgium, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Turkey.